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☆ Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased. The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy. The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.

Persons: Dow Jones, Joanne Hsu, Paul Ashworth, Jeffrey Roach, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: The University of Michigan Survey, Dow, North, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, LPL, Fed, Labor Department Locations: North America, Michigan

☆ Trump could drive inflation higher with his second-term economic agenda, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump is building a second-term economic agenda that analysts say could reheat the very inflation that he has slammed President Joe Biden for creating. We have a ring around the country," Trump said in a TIME interview released Tuesday, referring to aggressive tariffs he has promised to impose in a second term. Yet economists and Wall Street analysts agree that these plans would likely drive consumer prices higher. "A second Trump term could bring higher tariffs, attempts to weaken the dollar, even higher deficits, deportation of illegal immigrants, and other policies that could put upward pressure on inflation," Piper Sandler analysts wrote last week. Reached for comment, the Trump campaign said, "under President Trump, inflation was non-existent, gasoline was cheap, groceries were affordable, and the American Dream was alive and well."

Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Joe Biden, Trump, Jay Powell, Piper Sandler, Donald Trump's, Paul Ashworth, Wells Organizations: Clinton Middle School, Getty, Wall Street, Trump, Federal, Wall, Capital Economics, North, U.S ., Wells Locations: Clinton , Iowa, China, Mexico, South Carolina, North America

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn't coming to the rescue any time soon," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty ImagesAirline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Robert Frick, February's, Patrick T, Fallon, Jerome Powell, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow, BLS, Navy Federal Credit Union, AFP, Getty, North, Capital Economics Locations: Redondo Beach , California, North America

☆ Why that ‘last mile’ of the inflation fight may be more challenging
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.

Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ US manufacturing sector eyes recovery; construction spending solid
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed construction spending increased 0.5% in August after rising 0.9% in July, lifted by outlays on single- and multi-family housing. Spending on private construction projects rose 0.5%, with investment in residential construction advancing 0.6% after increasing 1.6% in the prior month. The construction spending report showed outlays on multi-family housing projects rose 0.6% in August. Spending on new single-family construction projects rose 1.7%. Spending on manufacturing construction projects shot up 1.2%.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Paul Ashworth, outlays, Freddie Mac, Biden, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, North America Economist, Capital Economics, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, Panama, China, United States, State

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Other megacap stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) advanced between 0.9% and 1.9%. Eight of the eleven S&P sub sectors were down, with the utilities index (.SPLRCU), often considered as a bond proxy, declining 4.9%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 4.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and 48 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 211 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Stocks, Paul Ashworth, Kevin McCarthy, advancers, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Cleveland Fed, North, Capital Economics, Democratic, Republican, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Bengaluru

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.2% annual rate in July, which was a slight increase over June's 3% reading. Typically, that would be associated with a jump in unemployment as businesses and consumers scale back. Yet the unemployment rate has remained below 4% -- low for the U.S. -- since February 2022, and stood at 3.5% as of last month. Others feel the economy remains slow to adjust to higher interest rates, and that the unemployment rate will ultimately rise before the Fed finishes its inflation fight. The current Fed "has been uniquely successful thus far in lowering inflation while leaving the unemployment rate at its lowest levels in roughly half a century," they wrote, with the potential that policy tightening so far "may bring about further declines in inflation without a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate.

Persons: Bryan Woolston, Pierre, Daniel Sarte, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Mary Daly, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston WASHINGTON, . Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Graphics, North, Capital Economics, Traders, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, North America

☆ Behind Prime Day's rosy headlines are mixed signals for back-to-school season. These retail stocks will fare the best
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The National Retail Federation is predicting record spending , whether students are heading back to elementary school, high school or college. Bracing for higher prices as wages fall Baked into that outlook was an expectation held by the vast majority of respondents, 82%, that prices will be higher this year than in 2022. As in the KPMG survey, the gain largely reflected the perception that prices will be higher this year. In the JLL poll, Walmart , Target and Amazon were among the top three retailers parents planned to shop, by a wide margin. Stifel reiterated its price target of $163 for Walmart, saying, "We continue to see more upside than downside from current levels."

Persons: Paul Ashworth, Staples, Mark Astrachan, Astrachan, Stifel, Corey Tarlowe, Tarlowe Organizations: Prime, National Retail Federation, KPMG, Big, Capital Economics, Consumers, Walmart, Target, Old Navy, Kohl's, Macy's, Costco, Adobe Analytics, Jefferies, Amazon, Walmart U.S, Bed Locations: American

☆ Wall Street is placing its bets for a big Fed meeting and inflation reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The betting is also that the latest inflation reading for May that will be reported Tuesday, just as the two-day Fed meeting gets underway, will show additional progress in the fight against higher prices. Those views have helped power a broader stock market rally on Wall Street this month. In fact, the combination of the narrow stock market rally in 2023, until this month at least, plus the low VIX reading, leads Demmert to expect a 10% stock market correction at some point. "The stock market at large is in overbought territory and investors are very complacent, which was the case prior to the past three major declines within this 18-month bear market. Between the June and September meetings, the Fed would get three more inflation and three more payrolls reports.

Persons: Russell, Scott Ladner, Ladner, James Demmert, that's, Demmert, Jerome Powell's, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Jerome Powell, John Wiley, CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Fed, CME Group, CPI, Horizon Investments, Street Research, Investors, North, Capital Economics, Capital, UBS, Federal, Philadelphia Fed, Adobe, University of Michigan Locations: Charlotte , North Carolina, SPX, downtrends, North America

☆ US private payrolls increase solidly; wage growth cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies Private payrolls increase by 296,000 in AprilPrior month's gain revised lower to 142,000WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. private employers boosted hiring in April amid strong demand for workers in the leisure and hospitality industry, but a slowdown in wage growth offered some good news for the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Private payrolls increased by 296,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would increase 148,000. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 160,000 jobs last month.

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said. "It's improving and the economy is cooling, but it's still far from tepid," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation. What drove inflation in March 2023Housing was a "notable" inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS. The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. "It signals the food inflation fever has been broken," Zandi said.

☆ Small US banks see record drop in deposits after SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Deposits at small US banks dropped by a record amount following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, data released on Friday by the Federal Reserve showed. Deposits at small banks fell $119 billion to $5.46 trillion in the week ended March 15, which was more than twice the previous record drop and the biggest decline as a percent of overall deposits since the week ended March 16, 2007. Borrowings at small banks, defined as all but the biggest 25 commercial US banks, increased by $253 billion to a record $669.6 billion, the Fed’s weekly data showed. The rise equates to about half as much as the deposit decline at small banks, suggesting some of the cash may have gone into money market funds or other instruments. It was unclear if the shift in deposits out of small banks will persist.

☆ Small U.S. banks see record drop in deposits after SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 24 (Reuters) - Deposits at small U.S. banks dropped by a record amount following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, data released on Friday by the Federal Reserve showed. Deposits at small banks fell $119 billion to $5.46 trillion in the week ended March 15. Borrowings at small banks, defined as all but the biggest 25 commercial U.S. banks, increased by $253 billion to a record $669.6 billion, the Fed's weekly data showed. The rise equates to about half as much as the deposit decline at small banks, suggesting that some of the cash may have gone into money market funds or other instruments. It was unclear if the shift in deposits out of small banks will persist.

☆ Fed rate hike campaign in question as bank stocks swoon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets now expect interest-rate cuts as soon as May or June, with the Fed policy rate seen ending the year a full percentage point lower than it is now. Trader bets and actual Fed policy decisions often diverge, and analysts caution against taking the market view as gospel. Interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated.”WILD SWINGSExpectations for the U.S. central bank’s next move have swung wildly in recent days. Now, with the banking crisis seemingly rekindled and banking stocks again under pressure, traders are looking for one more Fed rate hike if that, and then a string of interest-rate reductions, with the rate ending this year in a 3.5%-3.75% range. “It’s conceivable that we’ve seen the peak in market interest rates this cycle,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.

Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) tumbled more than 60% as news of fresh financing failed to reassure investors, and so did Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O). U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers on Monday who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. Regulators also moved swiftly to close New York's Signature Bank SBNY.O, which had come under pressure in recent days. In China, where SVB was the main go-to foreign bank for the majority of start-ups, entrepreneurs and venture funds were also scrambling for alternative funding.

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for February — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Overall inflation has moderated from June's pandemic-era peak over 9% but remains higher than any point since the 1980s. watch now"The pervasiveness of inflation is an ongoing issue," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Inflation a byproduct of supply, demand imbalancesConsumer prices began rising at a rapid pace in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown. Goods inflation has retreated but has since spread to the services sector largely due to business' high demand for workers, economists said. The Fed is trying to manufacture a so-called "soft landing," whereby by inflation slows but the economy doesn't tip into a recession.

☆ US stock futures rally as Fed acts to stabilise banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Analysts noted that, importantly, the Fed would accept collateral at par rather than marking to market, allowing banks to borrow funds without having to sell assets at a loss. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.3%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 17% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. The dollar eased 0.4% on the Swiss franc , while the euro firmed 0.4% to $1.0690 as short-term U.S. yields dropped.

☆ Stock futures, bonds rally as U.S. acts to stabilise banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.1%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 28% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. That, combined with the shift to safety, saw yields on two-year Treasuries dive 47 basis points on Thursday and Friday to stand at 4.58%, a long way from last week's 5.08% peak. Treasury 10-year bond futures added another 6 ticks on Monday, having been up over 20 ticks at one stage in hectic early trade.

☆ U.S. government steps in and says people with funds deposited at SVB will be able to access their money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Those with money at the bank will have full access starting Monday. The Treasury Department designated both SVB and Signature as systemic risks, giving it authority to unwind both institutions in a way that it said "fully protects all depositors." The Fed facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. The SVB failure was the nation's largest collapse of a financial institution since Washington Mutual went under in 2008. Authorities had spent the weekend looking for a larger institution to buy SVB, but came up short.

☆ U.S. trade deficit widens as goods exports hit seven-month low
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of manufacturing and services exports stuck in contraction territory in November. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. The overall decline in consumer goods imports is in line with slowing demand for goods because of higher borrowing costs. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October.

☆ Weak U.S. goods exports weigh on trade deficit
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The second straight monthly widening in the trade gap was partly driven by a shift in pharmaceutical products trade, with exports of these goods falling sharply and imports surging. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October. A smaller trade deficit was one of the main factors behind the rebound in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.

☆ U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

With inflation cooling considerably in October, economists estimate real retail sales increased 0.9% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.6%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.7% last month. Data for September was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Core retail salesCore retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

☆ U.S. retail sales increase solidly in October
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Retail sales increase 1.3% in OctoberCore retail sales rise 0.7%; September sales revised upWASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting consumer spending picked up early in the fourth quarter, which could help to support the economy. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.6%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.7% last month. Data for September was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported.

☆ Even with slower inflation, consumer sentiment weakened sharply in November, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

On an annual basis, the headline index reading fell 18.8%, while the current conditions measure was off 21.5% and the future expectations measure slid 17%. The University of Michigan release comes a day after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, below the 0.6% estimate. "For low-income households in particular, higher prices for essentials limit discretionary spending, crimp savings, and contribute to higher credit card debt." Inflation expectations edged higher in the month despite October's CPI reading, which showed that year-over-year prices rose 7.7%, compared to 8.2% the previous month. The sentiment index reached its historic low in June as worries accelerate that the U.S. already was in recession or heading for one.

☆ Prepare your finances for a recession despite strong GDP report, warn financial advisors: 'Plan for more disruption'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"For the U.S. economy, a developed economy, that's very respectable, slightly above average," said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult, a data research company. watch nowWhy it may be 'a chilly winter'That GDP expansion marks a rebound from a deceleration in both Q1 and Q2. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth meets the common definition of a recession — though the National Bureau of Economic Research, generally considered the arbiter of downturns, hasn't officially declared one. "Bottom Line: This may be the strongest and only positive print on GDP growth we see for a while," Swonk wrote. "We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year."

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